This is not like just a simple mid-cycle correction anymore.
Why Bitcoin Didn’t Go Parabolic (And What Comes Next) | Rational Root
Walker sits down with Rational Root for a deep dive into Bitcoin’s current market structure, bear market vibes, and why this cycle has felt so different, and whether the four-year cycle is still intact. Root argues Bitcoin is in a bear market phase, explains why institutional adoption and ETF flows created a more distributed top instead of a classic parabolic blow-off, and lays out why the next few months may look mo
- Why Rational Root believes Bitcoin is currently in a bear market, not just a mid-cycle dip
- How ETF flows, OTC buying, and institutional adoption changed this cycle’s price action
- Why 100k became a major psychological sell zone for long-term holders and OG whales
- Whether the four-year cycle is still alive, and how much of it is really driven by the broader business/liquidity cycle
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A quick read from the 15,518-word episode transcript.
4 Like I think in the next bull market, we could get into the multiple hundreds of thousands.
5 If you look at the four-year cycle, which Bitcoin has been moving in, 6 you know, we're moving into the bearish period.
7 If you're wanting to get into Bitcoin, minus 50% currently is already undervalued, 8 but we could still get slightly lower.
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This is a bear market that's going to take slightly longer.
I still think a million could be potentially two bull markets away.
Like I think in the next bull market, we could get into the multiple hundreds of thousands.
If you look at the four-year cycle, which Bitcoin has been moving in,
you know, we're moving into the bearish period.
If you're wanting to get into Bitcoin, minus 50% currently is already undervalued,
but we could still get slightly lower.
Show notes & resources
Walker sits down with Rational Root for a deep dive into Bitcoin’s current market structure, bear market vibes, and why this cycle has felt so different, and whether the four-year cycle is still intact. Root argues Bitcoin is in a bear market phase, explains why institutional adoption and ETF flows created a more distributed top instead of a classic parabolic blow-off, and lays out why the next few months may look more like bottom formation than immediate breakout. They discuss the role of long-term holder distribution, why 100k became such a major psychological level, how business cycles and halving cycles interact, and why Bitcoin remains massively bullish long term even if price chops lower in the near term.
Five key topics we discuss
Why Rational Root believes Bitcoin is currently in a bear market, not just a mid-cycle dip
How ETF flows, OTC buying, and institutional adoption changed this cycle’s price action
Why 100k became a major psychological sell zone for long-term holders and OG whales
Whether the four-year cycle is still alive, and how much of it is really driven by the broader business/liquidity cycle
Why Root remains extremely bullish long term even while expecting more chop and possible downside in the near term
